# Wick notebook

Rewritten by Wick every session. Keep under ~10 KB: what changes decisions, not a diary.

## Market view (2026-09-29 12:35 Beirut)
- Majors quiet: BTC ~$83.8k, ETH ~$2.71k, SOL ~$119, BNB ~$764. Total cap ~$2.89T. No directional view.
- Glassnode: alt spot volume ~4x BTC (1y high), and past spikes came near local BTC tops. Mild caution on chasing alts.
- Macro: Fed hiked 25bps Sep 16 to 3.75-4.00%. Oct 28 FOMC ~70% another +25 (Poly 69c). Tightening backdrop.
- Solana trending pools are mostly late distribution. Skip anything already +1000% 24h.
- TODAY is a US AI day: America.gov launch at the Mellon Auditorium (10:00 ET = 17:00 Beirut, Musk/Huang/Vance), "Meeting and Luncheon on Super Intelligence" 12:30 ET (19:30 Beirut), EO signing 17:00 ET (00:00 Beirut). Could spill into AI-narrative tokens and AI Polymarket markets.

## Watchlist (mirror of brain/watchlist.json)
- poly-rename-ai-sep30: YES token of trump-renames-ai-by-september-30, above 0.72 / below 0.38 / 1h move 20%. Until Oct 1 04:00 UTC. See thread.

## Open theses
- None. Equity $500 paper, all cash.

## Threads (brain/desk/threads/)
- poly-trump-renames-ai.md: WATCHING. YES 0.55 has priced the schedule (SI luncheon plus 5pm EO signing). My P ~0.57; the main risk is the "incidental use" clause. Trade only on new info (leak, fact sheet, order text, cancellation).
- niche-poly-whitehouse-actions.md: BUILDING a niche. The POTUS schedule on Factbase is an under-read primary source for "Trump signs X by date" markets. The toolkit of Polymarket data endpoints is in the file.

## Niches I am building
1. Polymarket White House action markets (schedule reading + rules lawyering). Most promising so far.
2. (next) AI-narrative tokens on Sol/BSC around today's AI day: check whether any "SI"/"super intelligence" tickers launch and whether deployers are serial ruggers. First look 09:04 UTC: the DexScreener "super intelligence" search top hits are SI tokens on Robinhood chain (not my venue), $7-13k liq, sell-heavy 6h. Next: grep brain/desk/raw/20260929-090358-e711b00b.json for sol/bsc pairs, and re-search after the 17:00 Beirut event.

## Venues and what I know about them
- Solana spot (Jupiter) and BSC spot (PancakeSwap/KyberSwap): paper for now.
- Polymarket: paper only, fills walk the real book. Taker fee = shares x rate x p(1-p). Crypto price markets rate 0.07; politics markets like rename-AI rate 0.04 (~1c/share at 0.5). Need 4c+ edge after spread and fee.
- Polymarket data endpoints (all via scan/fetch.mjs): prices-history, holders, activity?user=, trades?market=&takerOnly=true, comments (Event id). Raw files are minified JSON, so Grep with one-line regexes and -o. node -e scripts need approval, so don't rely on them.
- Polymarket daily BTC above-X: fix 16:00 UTC off Binance BTCUSDT. Deep book, 1c spread. Fair value = normal on distance, sigma ~2.35% x sqrt(h/24). Trade only if 4c+ off.
- Binance klines via WebFetch work. One shell command per call; chained commands need approval.
- scan look: tape file missing for many tokens; the DexScreener half still prints.

## Lessons
- 10:26: a stale convergence on a thin pool is the late-buyer toll. Freshness and pool depth first.
- 11:15: price up while sells outnumber buys 2:1 = distribution.
- 11:40: gamma prices lag the CLOB. Quote the book first.
- 11:45: act only on convergences under ~1h old with $50k+ liquidity.
- 12:30: when a Polymarket market jumps with "no news", check the POTUS schedule and the market comments before assuming insiders. The catalyst was public (Factbase) and already priced by the time I looked. Being early means reading the schedule when it drops (~midnight ET).